The leaves are turning brown, the nights are getting cold and the film publicists are busily planning their multi-million dollar Oscar campaigns – which must mean awards season is just around the corner. Now that the American Film Academy has ditched its plan to introduce a “popular film” category, everything that made any money over the summer can be quickly forgotten about as all the major studios start pushing their “serious” films in time for a nomination.
The likes of First Man, A Star Is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody are all getting in early – but most of the other front-runners will be released over the next few months, either in the post-Halloween, pre-Christmas dead zone, or somewhere in the January slump.
Hollywood has already had one of its biggest rebounds in years – with box office numbers up a staggering 9% on 2017 – but it’s also been through one of the most divisive, difficult, potentially destructive periods in history. With the Oscars often seen as a stocktaking exercise for everyone involved in the film industry, 2019’s awards will be under closer scrutiny than ever.
Festival prizes, critical reception and industry buzz are all getting impossible to ignore already – so it’s time for us to round-up the likely favourites for 2019’s big prizes.
Why it will win: If there’s one thing voters loves, it’s a story about themselves. Anything to do with fame, showbiz, or the entertainment industry cuts straight to the quick of Hollywood’s narcissistic heart, and Bradley Cooper’s musical drama ticks a lot of boxes. Remake of a beloved Golden Age classic? Tick. Directorial debut by an actor who’s already paid his dues? Tick. Repackaged pop star turning in a meaty performance? Tick. A Star Is Born will obviously win all the Oscar’s music awards, but it’s also the current front-runner for Best Film, Best Director, Best Actor and Best Actress. They might even throw something in for Sam Elliot too, if he’s lucky.
Why it won’t win: If anything, A Star Is Born seems a bit too obvious. As the last few years have proved, the Academy seems to be leaning away from the big weepie biopics that always used to clean up – giving Best Picture to quirkier, braver, more indie-edged movies like The Shape Of Water, Moonlight, Spotlight and Birdman.
Why it will win: Everything else that Damien Chazelle has touched has won an armful of Oscars, so there’s no reason to think that the worthy, weighty First Man won’t do the same. A nod for Best Picture (and a third Best Director nod for Chazelle) is a shoo-in, with Ryan Gosling and Claire Foy also hotly tipped for acting nominations. Gosling is playing a real life American hero, which the Academy usually loves, and all the voters who watched Foy in The Crown (and in the trailer for The Girl In The Spider’s Web) will have a hard time not recognising how versatile she really is.
Why it won’t win: The Academy doesn’t often like to repeat themselves, so there’s a good chance that Chazelle will be snubbed for what a lot of critics have decided is a fairly good film, but not a great one. Throw in the whole flag hoo-ha and you’ve also got a slightly sticky political issue that the Academy will want to stay as far away from as possible.
The Old Man & The Gun
Why it will win: Because it’s Robert Redford’s last film. Now that he’s announced his retirement, Redford’s turn in David Lowery’s crime comedy has taken on an extra load of import – turning a fairly breezy, very indie, little movie into the swansong of a legend. Lowery is a fantastic director, but it’s Redford’s performance here that will get noticed.
Why it won’t win: The film did well at festivals, but it opened very small in the US – meaning a lot of voters just won’t have seen it. Yes, they’re supposed to attend screenings and watch the discs that get sent to them, but the sad reality is that most of them don’t bother. Also, the film has Casey Affleck in it…
Why it will win: Spike Lee’s barbed social history lesson was his best film in years. John David Washington and Adam Driver might get recognised for their performances, but Lee is almost certain to get a Best Director nomination – with the film also tipped for Best Picture. Cynically speaking, the Academy is also acutely conscious of its diversity problem at the moment, so snubbing a film like BlacKkKlansman would rightly cause a bit of an uproar.
Why it won’t win:The film ends with the image of an inverted American Flag, slowly turning black, after Lee shows us the real scenes of the murders that took place during the Unite The Right rally in Charlottesville, Virginia. To say that it’s a bit inflammatory is a huge understatement – and naming the film Best Picture will make Hollywood look like it’s making a big political statement, which is something it’s usually terrified of doing.
Roma
Why it will win: Alfonso Cuarón is another Oscar favourite who joined the winners circle in 2013 with Gravity after multiple nominations for Y Tu Mamá También and Children Of Men. Stripping his style right down for an arty, black and white, autobiographical drama, Cuarón won the Golden Lion at Venice with Roma, and picked up almost universal acclaim from everyone who saw it. Best Director? (“Look! He can tell a small story too!”). Probably. Best Cinematography? (“Look! They took the colour out!”) Definitely. Best Film? Maybe not.
Why it won’t win: Other than the fact that it’s a little black and white film in a foreign language (it’s already been submitted for contention in that category by Mexico), the biggest hurdle for Roma is its distributor. If it won, it would be the first Netflix film to win Best Picture, and Hollywood just isn’t ready to open that can of worms yet.
Why it will win: Adam McKay got a lot of nods for 2015’s The Big Short – nominated for Best Film, Best Screenplay and Best Director. He writes a lot of snappy dialogue and he shoots it with plenty of style, so there’s no reason to think he won’t get the same kind of attention this year for Vice. All of that is likely to be overshadowed by one (or two?) performances though, as Christian Bale dons a ton of prosthetic makeup to play two different ages of Dick Cheney. Amy Adams, Steve Carrell and Sam Rockwell are also in with a shout, but Bale looks like the favourite here by far.
Why it won’t win: Firstly, there’s the politics issue. Whilst it’s not about current issues, the film is about real, recent Republican part members, and Hollywood will possibly try and avoid wading in. Then there’s the emotional problem. If the film follows the template McKay laid down with The Big Short, there’s not going to be a lot for Bale to sink his teeth into. If he delivers a poignant, cutting, heartfelt portrait of an old man losing power, he’ll win the Oscar. If he keeps talking to the camera like he’s in Deadpool, he won’t.
Why it will win: Ari Aster’s debut is accomplished in so many ways, but it’s Toni Collette who stands the biggest chance of winning anything for the film at the Oscars. Possibly delivering the best performance of her career, Collette’s portrait of grief/shock/terror is one of many remarkable things in the film – but it’s the only one that’s in with a chance of beating the genre curse.
Why it won’t win: Because it’s a horror film. If it’s got something supernatural in it, it’s obviously completely unworthy of competing alongside proper films. The same goes for sci-fi, superheroes and fantasy. Ridiculous, we know, but sadly still true.
Why it will win: Another festival favourite,Barry Jenkins is on track to repeat the success he had in 2016 with Moonlight. The film looks beautiful, and early reviews all point to Regina King as the standout from a particularly strong cast. Best Supporting Actress, Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay? All pretty safe bets at this stage.
Why it won’t win: Even before envelope-gate happened, there was a feeling that Moonlightwas a surprise winner in 2016 – a bit too indie and niche for the Academy against a front-runner like La La Land. Even if Jenkins’ follow up is more mainstream, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to repeat the same success.
The Favourite
Why it will win: Because it’s called “The Favourite”, and everyone loves a bit of irony? That, and the fact that it’s supposed to be genuinely brilliant – with Olivia Colman, Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz all being mentioned now in most conversations about acting awards. Director Yorgos Lanthimos has a history of making very good but very odd films (Dogtooth, The Lobster) but his latest mixes his art house sensibilities with stately period film weight – making this a perfect mix of style and substance.
Why it won’t win: The only thing that’s really standing in the way of The Favourite here is the competition. There’s a chance that it won’t get the distribution it needs to burrow into the voter’s heads, and that it might get written off as another one of Lanthimos’ weird indie films, but Colman stands a good chance here of competing for Best Actress.
Why it will win: Viggo Mortensen and Mahershala Ali both pull a Driving Miss Daisy and combine their Oscar-winning power to tackle some serious social issues in the Deep South. It’s a comedy, of sorts, but it’s also a hard hitting drama with a lot to say. Acting nods are likely here, although the film might miss out on the rest.
Why it won’t win: It might be seen as too much of a comedy – especially with king-of-the-fart-jokes Peter Farrelly directing – and that might mean it only gets recognised for the performances.
Why it will win: Okay, so this one surely has to be the favourite for the BAFTAs – taking a slice of British history and turning it into a gritty, performance-led historical drama with a strong female cast and a director (Josie Rourke) fresh from the London stage. But will it win over the Americans? Saoirse Ronan and Margot Robbie are both in it – and we know the Academy loves at least one of them – so there’s a very strong chance that this one will cross-over.
Why it won’t win: Gender politics come into play here again. On paper, this looks exactly like the kind of film that Hollywood needs to give Best Picture to at the moment – which in turn makes it less likely that they’ll actually do it. We could well see a battle of the Queens take place between Ronan, Robbie and Colman (for The Favourite), but Best Picture? It could be a close call.
Black Panther
Why it will win: It won’t. Or rather, it’ll probably clean up in all the technical categories, but there’s next to no chance of it winning any of the big prizes.
Why it won’t win: Despite Disney’s aggressive push for the film to win every award going – and despite the fact that it very nearly caused the Academy to introduce a whole new category, Black Panther is still a Marvel movie and it’s still a superhero movie. Rightly or wrongly, that means that it won’t get a look in when it comes to Best Film, Best Director and the the acting gongs. Given the back and forth about the “Popular Film” award, there’s a good chance that the film will get a nomination for Best Film, just to keep everyone happy, but that’s all it’s going to get.